China Shaken by Russian Military's Vast Ineptitude
When Russia’ invasion of Ukraine began, much of the world saw a swift conquering of the sovereign nation in the cards. Russia is, after all, a much larger nation with what the world believed was a powerful and fearsome military.
Now, well over two months later, and Russia’s antiquated equipment and reluctant troops are being pushed back, away from major Ukrainian cities, while commanders in the field are literally throwing whatever they have into the battle…regardless of the appropriateness or cost of the munitions.
The sheer ineptitude of the Russian military has shocked the world, and will almost certainly usher in a new world pecking order once this invasion is through.
And, as if to reiterate this coming reality, China is already sitting up and taking notice.
CIA Director William Burns has reaffirmed his assessment that China is “unsettled” by Russia’s struggles in Ukraine, but he doesn’t believe Moscow’s troubles will change Beijing’s own determination to capture Taiwan.
Beijing is weighing the events in Europe against its own cost-benefit calculus, Burns said at a Financial Times event on Saturday. “Clearly the Chinese leadership is trying to look carefully at what lessons they should draw from Ukraine about their own ambitions in Taiwan.”
But there were deeper impacts as well:
Just weeks before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces to invade neighboring Ukraine, he was in Beijing to ink a 5,000-word joint statement with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, who together declared the Russia-China partnership had “no limits.”
Officials in Beijing say they were unaware of Putin’s plans, and that the conflict isn’t in China’s interests. U.S. officials, who were adamant about the Kremlin’s intentions despite widespread skepticism in Europe, believe Beijing knew about the forthcoming military operation but likely failed to anticipate its scale.
A Russia-China alliance, as frightening as it may be, would likely require Russia to hold up a great deal of the “security” end of the bargain, given that China has the natural military buffer of the Pacific Ocean.
With Putin’s buffoonery in Ukraine on full display, China must surely be rethinking the calculus of their relationship.