Connect with us

Opinion

DAVIDSON: ’13 Keys to the Presidency Model’ Predicts Trump Victory — Opinion

A must read!

Jeff Davidson

Published

on

Allan Lichtman, in 1981, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created The Keys to the White House model. Since then, Lichtman has been widely quoted throughout the media for his ability to predict who will win presidential elections.

Everybody’s Wrong at Some Time

In 2016, against all odds, Lichtman, an American University professor, boldly predicted that Donald Trump would win. In August 2020, during media interviews and again in early October, the professor said that Donald Trump will lose in 2020. According to this, Trump only possesses six of the 13 keys listed below, and fails to gather seven of them, hence, adding up to an election loss.

Trending: Dean of One of America’s Largest College’s Says Grading Papers on Quality Is ‘Racist’

Is the professor’s assessment correct this time? Let’s look at the record.

take our poll - story continues below

Would You Vote for Trump If He Runs In 2024?

  • Would You Vote for Trump If He Runs In 2024?  

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Completing this poll grants you access to Flag And Cross updates free of charge. You may opt out at anytime. You also agree to this site's Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

The 13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. So, Lichtman’s score is 0 to 1, against Trump.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Lichtman, 1 to 1.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Lichtman, now favors Trump 2 to 1.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman: 3 to 1.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Lichtman, 3 to 2. Is this the right call? Sure, we’ve had shutdown related economic challenges and maybe it feels like a recession to some people, but as Geoff Colvin at Fortune points out, we are not in a recession.

Also, despite COVID-19, masks, lockdowns, riots, and such, an astounding 56% of Americans report that they’re better off now than when Obama and Biden left office. “The figures are the highest on record, which Trump has hailed as incredible.”

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Lichtman: 3 to 3. Real per capita economic growth dropped precipitously during the lockdown, however everyone understands the causes and many people see the rising tide.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. Lichtman: 4 to 3. Tightening the border, ending our long-term involvement in foreign wars, launching “Right to Try,” enacting prison reform, and so much more – take your pick!

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Lichtman: 4 to 4.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Lichtman, 4 to 5, meaning the Trump is losing. Democrats have done an excellent job in launching witch hunts, conducting phony impeachment proceedings, and jailing Trump associates on process crimes.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 5.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman: 5 to 6. Is this the right call? What about crushing ISIS, and the aforementioned Middle East breakthroughs?

12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman: 5 to 7. The Left can’t stand Trump, but 15,000 to 30,000 people showing up at airport stops, with many attendees from the ranks of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, can’t be overlooked.

13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, 6 to 7. Joe Biden has perhaps the lowest charisma quotient that Democrats have nominated since… forever.

Bonus Points

If the professor is wrong about keys #5, #11, and/or #12 Trump would be ahead 7 to 6, or possibly 8 to 5, or even 9 to 4.

One might also observe that with gasoline under $2.17 per gallon; Trump’s minority voter support having tripled since 2016; and a challenger with health problems, who is frequently not on the campaign trail, and is tainted by scandal even as the mainstream press censors the news, it is game over.

*Headline

Stimulus Checks Will Go to Criminals & Illegals After Dems Reject GOP Attempt to Stop It

Dems: never doing the right thing, each and every day!

John Salvatore

Published

on

The Boston Marathon bomber will receive a stimulus check. And yes, it will be for the same amount that you will get. That’s not a joke. And he’s not the only criminal who will get it, either. Thanks for everything, Dems! Check this out, via The Daily Wire: Senate Democrats blocked an amendment by Republicans on Saturday that would have stopped taxpayer-funded stimulus checks from going to illegal aliens and incarcerated criminals. Republican Sens. Tom Cotton (AR), Ted Cruz (TX), and Bill Cassidy (LA) offered an amendment on the Senate floor to block prisoners from being able to receive stimulus checks, which was blocked in a 49-50 vote. LOOK: https://twitter.com/TomCottonAR/status/1368282575576440834?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1368282575576440834%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2Fcotton-covid-relief-bill-convicted-murderers-stimulus-checks https://twitter.com/TomCottonAR/status/1368285244416262145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1368285244416262145%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2Fcotton-covid-relief-bill-convicted-murderers-stimulus-checks More from Fox News: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found this week that Biden’s coronavirus bill would add $1.862 trillion to the national deficit over 10 years, with the bulk of the new spending — $1.173 trillion — occurring in fiscal year 2021. Dems: never doing the right thing, each and every day!

Continue Reading

News

Donald Trump Goes Scorched Earth on ‘Disloyal & Very Bad Senator’ Lisa Murkowski

Say goodbye, Lisa!!

John Salvatore

Published

on

The GOP doesn’t need centrists in the upper and lower chambers. There are far too many liberals in Congress as it is. The left doesn’t need more votes. It’s time for RINO’s like Murkowski, Romney, Toomey, Cassidy, and Sasse to head on back over to the private sector. Donald Trump will do his best to soon make that a reality. From Washington Examiner: Former President Donald Trump will not be supporting Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s bid for a fourth term. The former president announced on Saturday that he’ll be traveling to the Last Frontier State to campaign against Murkowski ahead of her 2022 reelection bid, according to Politico. CONTINUED: “I will not be endorsing, under any circumstances, the failed candidate from the great State of Alaska, Lisa Murkowski. She represents her state badly and her country even worse,” he said. “I do not know where other people will be next year, but I know where I will be — in Alaska campaigning against a disloyal and very bad Senator.” Murkowski, a centrist, has long been willing to split from the former commander in chief, as evidenced by some of her recent votes in the Senate. The Alaskan voted for Trump’s conviction last month on the House’s impeachment article of inciting an insurrection. The former president was ultimately acquitted. https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1360763406677114886 https://twitter.com/AP/status/1360761311781662720 https://twitter.com/GriffJenkins/status/1360765053436313601 https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1360766719141302274 https://twitter.com/LAGOP/status/1360722297754177546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1360722297754177546%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2Frepublican-senators-vote-to-convict-trump-on-incitement-charge

Continue Reading

Latest Articles

Best of the Week