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New Report Breaks Down the Likelihood the GOP Keeps the House and Senate

Interesting numbers.



The November midterm elections are finally upon us, with one more day to go. Yes, that’s right folks, just survive the next 48 hours and the bombardment of political ads that are currently assaulting your eyeballs ruthlessly will come to an end.

In the meantime, many folks on the right are wondering what kind of odds the GOP is facing in regards to keeping the House and the Senate. Well, things are a bit of a mixed bag it seems.

Since the Kavanaugh confirmation circus, Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate have strengthened. For the last few weeks, Real Clear Politics’ average of the key polls has given Republicans 50 “safe” Senate seats and narrow leads in two of the six “tossup” races (last week the GOP had a slight edge in three). According to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Republicans now have a 6 in 7 chance (84.8%; up 2.1% since last week) of maintaining control of the Senate, giving the Democrats just a 1 in 7 chance (15.2%) of taking over.

Trending: American Music Icon Dead at 72; Was Set to Tour This Summer

Silver projects Republicans to end up with 52 seats and Democrats with 48, a net gain of one seat for Republicans and one seat more than is needed for the 51-seat majority. Silver currently gives Republicans an 80% chance of gaining up to four seats or losing up to two, and just a 10% chance that they gain more than four or lose more than two.

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With their Senate hopes slipping away, Democrats are increasingly looking to the House as their best chance at wresting at least one chamber of Congress out of the hands of the GOP. And, unlike with the Senate, the Democrats’ odds of doing so are looking quite good; in fact, they’re nearly mirror-images of the Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate.

Real Clear Politics’ poll averages currently show Democrats with 203 seats that are “safely” blue, including 14 that are “likely” to go their way and 16 that “lean” Democrat. Republicans currently have 196 “safe” seats (20 likely and 26 leaning). Last week, RCP gave Republicans 199 “safe” seats. If those numbers hold up, that means the Democrats only need 15 of the 36 tossup seats to attain the 218-majority in the House. Republicans, meanwhile, need to win 22. The one thing that could work in Republicans’ favor is that 31 of the 36 tossups are currently held by Republicans.

In numbers that closely resemble those for the Senate, but favoring the other party, FiveThirtyEight sets the odds dramatically in the Democrats’ favor. According to Silver’s analysis, the Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance (84.9%) of winning control of the House, while Republicans have only a 1 in 7 chance (15.1%). That’s about a 10-point improvement for Democrats over early October.

The most likely projected outcome is that Democrats will end up with 233 seats and Republicans with 202. Silver has given the Democratic Party a 10 percent chance of gaining more than 59 seats and a less than 10 percent chance of gaining fewer than 19 seats.

At the end of the day, it seems the projection is that Democrats will take the House while Republicans retain control of the Senate.

Source: Daily Wire


American Music Icon Dead at 72; Was Set to Tour This Summer

Rest in peace, amigo.



When it comes to gritty guitars and even grittier songs, there is no act quite like that little ol’ band from Texas. ZZ Top mainlined American blues standards directly into the electric era of 1970’s rock, and then reinvented the genre once again with the synthesizers of the 1980’s.  From there, the band toured the world incessantly, bringing their grimy grooves and unforgettable stage presence to audiences from Dusseldorf to Delaware. Now, just weeks before the band was set to take to the road once again, one member of the holy triumvirate of honky-tonk has passed away. Dusty Hill, the bassist for ZZ Top, has died. He was 72. Billy Gibbons and Frank Beard of the Texas-based trio issued a statement to Variety on Tuesday, writing: “We are saddened by the news today that our Compadre, Dusty Hill, has passed away in his sleep at home in Houston, TX. We, along with legions of ZZ Top fans around the world, will miss your steadfast presence, your good nature and enduring commitment to providing that monumental bottom to the ‘Top’. We will forever be connected to that ‘Blues Shuffle in C.’” And then, echoing the sentiments of music fans the nation over: “You will be missed greatly, amigo,” the statement added. We couldn’t have said it better ourselves, so we’ll just leave you all with a classic. Make sure to turns those speakers up, y’all.  

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Mask Mandates Coming Back to Capitol Hill After CDC Switcheroo

This isn’t likely to go over well with some lawmakers.



With the “delta” variant now raging in some parts of the country, and breakthrough infections of vaccinated individuals continuing to be reported, the CDC has made a stark decision, stating that even vaccinated folks should be wearing a mask when they are indoors or in parts of the country with high COVID transmission rates. This has now prompted the House of Representatives to bring back a previously criticized policy themselves. Capitol Attending Physician Brian Monahan said late Tuesday that the House of Representatives is reinstating its mask mandate – and therefore the threat of fines to members who don’t comply – following updated guidance from the Centers from Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on the delta variant of the coronavirus. The White House also appears to be going back to mandated masks. A White House press representative was seen Tuesday swapping a sign saying people are required to wear masks if unvaccinated with another saying masks are required regardless of vaccination status. Monahan didn’t leave much room for interpretation. “For the Congress, representing a collection of individuals traveling weekly from various risk areas (both high and low rates of disease transmission), all individuals should wear a well-fitted, medical-grade filtration mask (for example an ear loop surgical mask or a KN95 mask) when they are in an interior space,” Monahan said in a letter sent to congressional staffers. The move will almost certainly see pushback from the far right side of the aisle, where the mandating of masks has been a very unpopular policy, and a point of contention in almost every arena in which it has been implemented.

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