The November midterm elections are finally upon us, with one more day to go. Yes, that’s right folks, just survive the next 48 hours and the bombardment of political ads that are currently assaulting your eyeballs ruthlessly will come to an end.
In the meantime, many folks on the right are wondering what kind of odds the GOP is facing in regards to keeping the House and the Senate. Well, things are a bit of a mixed bag it seems.
Silver projects Republicans to end up with 52 seats and Democrats with 48, a net gain of one seat for Republicans and one seat more than is needed for the 51-seat majority. Silver currently gives Republicans an 80% chance of gaining up to four seats or losing up to two, and just a 10% chance that they gain more than four or lose more than two.
With their Senate hopes slipping away, Democrats are increasingly looking to the House as their best chance at wresting at least one chamber of Congress out of the hands of the GOP. And, unlike with the Senate, the Democrats’ odds of doing so are looking quite good; in fact, they’re nearly mirror-images of the Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate.
Real Clear Politics’ poll averages currently show Democrats with 203 seats that are “safely” blue, including 14 that are “likely” to go their way and 16 that “lean” Democrat. Republicans currently have 196 “safe” seats (20 likely and 26 leaning). Last week, RCP gave Republicans 199 “safe” seats. If those numbers hold up, that means the Democrats only need 15 of the 36 tossup seats to attain the 218-majority in the House. Republicans, meanwhile, need to win 22. The one thing that could work in Republicans’ favor is that 31 of the 36 tossups are currently held by Republicans.
In numbers that closely resemble those for the Senate, but favoring the other party, FiveThirtyEight sets the odds dramatically in the Democrats’ favor. According to Silver’s analysis, the Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance (84.9%) of winning control of the House, while Republicans have only a 1 in 7 chance (15.1%). That’s about a 10-point improvement for Democrats over early October.
The most likely projected outcome is that Democrats will end up with 233 seats and Republicans with 202. Silver has given the Democratic Party a 10 percent chance of gaining more than 59 seats and a less than 10 percent chance of gaining fewer than 19 seats.
At the end of the day, it seems the projection is that Democrats will take the House while Republicans retain control of the Senate.
Source: Daily Wire
Join the conversation!
We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, vulgarity, profanity, all caps, or discourteous behavior. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain a courteous and useful public environment where we can engage in reasonable discourse.
Another Hollywood Actress Joins Alyssa Milano in Condemning Anti-Semitic Women’s March Leaders
This is kind of surprising.
Racist Note Discovered on Dorm Door. When Cops Confront Student Who Reported it, The Truth Comes Out.
How A Rental Car Company Could Affect The Florida Election
We are witnessing an ugly and disheartening ordeal unfold in the great State of Florida this week
Fox News and Twitter Are on The Outs. What Does That Mean For You?
The attack on Carlson's family at home was just the latest in a long line of aggressive maneuvers aimed in...
Man Posts Fake GoFundMe Page for Deceased High School Football Player. Here’s What’s Happening to Him Now.
This is deplorable.