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New Report Breaks Down the Likelihood the GOP Keeps the House and Senate

Interesting numbers.

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The November midterm elections are finally upon us, with one more day to go. Yes, that’s right folks, just survive the next 48 hours and the bombardment of political ads that are currently assaulting your eyeballs ruthlessly will come to an end.

In the meantime, many folks on the right are wondering what kind of odds the GOP is facing in regards to keeping the House and the Senate. Well, things are a bit of a mixed bag it seems.

Since the Kavanaugh confirmation circus, Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate have strengthened. For the last few weeks, Real Clear Politics’ average of the key polls has given Republicans 50 “safe” Senate seats and narrow leads in two of the six “tossup” races (last week the GOP had a slight edge in three). According to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Republicans now have a 6 in 7 chance (84.8%; up 2.1% since last week) of maintaining control of the Senate, giving the Democrats just a 1 in 7 chance (15.2%) of taking over.

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Silver projects Republicans to end up with 52 seats and Democrats with 48, a net gain of one seat for Republicans and one seat more than is needed for the 51-seat majority. Silver currently gives Republicans an 80% chance of gaining up to four seats or losing up to two, and just a 10% chance that they gain more than four or lose more than two.

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With their Senate hopes slipping away, Democrats are increasingly looking to the House as their best chance at wresting at least one chamber of Congress out of the hands of the GOP. And, unlike with the Senate, the Democrats’ odds of doing so are looking quite good; in fact, they’re nearly mirror-images of the Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate.

Real Clear Politics’ poll averages currently show Democrats with 203 seats that are “safely” blue, including 14 that are “likely” to go their way and 16 that “lean” Democrat. Republicans currently have 196 “safe” seats (20 likely and 26 leaning). Last week, RCP gave Republicans 199 “safe” seats. If those numbers hold up, that means the Democrats only need 15 of the 36 tossup seats to attain the 218-majority in the House. Republicans, meanwhile, need to win 22. The one thing that could work in Republicans’ favor is that 31 of the 36 tossups are currently held by Republicans.

In numbers that closely resemble those for the Senate, but favoring the other party, FiveThirtyEight sets the odds dramatically in the Democrats’ favor. According to Silver’s analysis, the Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance (84.9%) of winning control of the House, while Republicans have only a 1 in 7 chance (15.1%). That’s about a 10-point improvement for Democrats over early October.

The most likely projected outcome is that Democrats will end up with 233 seats and Republicans with 202. Silver has given the Democratic Party a 10 percent chance of gaining more than 59 seats and a less than 10 percent chance of gaining fewer than 19 seats.

At the end of the day, it seems the projection is that Democrats will take the House while Republicans retain control of the Senate.

Source: Daily Wire

 

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Confirmed: Mitt Romney Used Secret Twitter Account to Defend Himself From President Trump

What in the world?

John Salvatore

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Is Mitt Romney in junior high? What kind of grown man uses a secret Twitter account? Of course, Romney probably doesn’t tweet himself but this means he had a proxy do it for him. Same difference. It would appear as if Mitt is still pretty sore from losing the 2012 presidential election to Barack Obama, which he should’ve easily won. In that regard, he’s a lot like Hillary Clinton. Why the guy keeps going against President Trump in a time when the radically far-left media and Congressional Democrats won’t lay off makes little sense. But, that’s not about to trip up the Utah senator anytime soon. From Daily Wire: During an interview with The Atlantic, Romney made the revelation that he had a secret Twitter account: “That’s kind of what he does,” Romney said with a shrug, and then got up to retrieve an iPad from his desk. He explained that he uses a secret Twitter account—“What do they call me, a lurker?”—to keep tabs on the political conversation. “I won’t give you the name of it,” he said [emphasis added], but “I’m following 668 people.” Swiping at his tablet, he recited some of the accounts he follows, including journalists, late-night comedians (“What’s his name, the big redhead from Boston?”), and athletes. Trump was not among them. “He tweets so much,” Romney said, comparing the president to one of his nieces who overshares on Instagram. “I love her, but it’s like, ah, it’s too much.” Romney confirmed the fake account was his: Just spoke to @MittRomney on the phone, and asked him about Pierre Delecto. His only response: “C’est moi.” Updated my story accordingly: https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1186093210214510593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1186093210214510593&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailywire.com%2Fnews%2Fa-total-loser-romney-mocked-after-using-secret-twitter-account-to-defend-himself-report-suggests Former conservative Bill Kristol posed a question on Twitter… Let’s see how much of a hellscape Twitter is. Whom do you respect more? https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1180492726510460930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1180492726510460930&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Fbrettt-3136%2F2019%2F10%2F05%2Fbill-kristol-might-regret-his-twitter-poll-pitting-mitt-romney-against-donald-trump%2F Here’s…

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‘Well-Connected’ Republican Tells Fox News Host There’s 20% Chance GOP Senate Removes Trump

Seems awfully high…

John Salvatore

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Fox News’ host Chris Wallace isn’t exactly “in the bag” for President Trump. Wallace has been against 45 for a good while now. On Sunday, he made a big announcement that many people may find unsettling. Apparently, a big-name Republican – who, of course, shall remain nameless – told Wallace that there’s a decent chance the GOP-controlled Senate could potentially move to impeach Trump. If true, why? Why would the GOP do such a silly, silly thing and give the left a win in a time when unemployment is at record lows and the economy is doing well? Here’s Chris… From Washington Examiner: Fox News host Chris Wallace said he was told by a well-known GOP source that there is a 1-in-5 chance President Trump will be removed from office if the Senate holds an impeachment trial. The figure came up during a conversation with acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney on Fox News Sunday as the two discussed the controversies the Trump administration faces related to Ukraine and Syria. Wallace said, “I talked to a very well-connected Republican in Washington this week, somebody whose name you would know well, who says that if the House votes to impeach and it gets to a trial in the Senate, there is now a 20% chance he believes — obviously, it’s just an estimate — now a 20% chance enough Republicans will vote with the Democrats to remove the president.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4Zjtcml7lU BREAKING: New leaked video from inside CNN: President Jeff Zucker tells employees to push “impeachment” and that all of CNN’s stories should be about “moves towards impeachment” One of CNN’s employees says Zucker has a “personal vendetta against Trump” https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1183780647522856960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1183780647522856960&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weaselzippers.us%2F435181-project-veritas-video-cnns-jeff-zucker-directing-employees-to-push-impeachment%2F WATCH: Nancy Pelosi compares Democrats’ impeachment inquiry to the American Revolution War https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1184922572246274048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1184922572246274048&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Fdougp-3137%2F2019%2F10%2F17%2Fcome-on-nancy-pelosi-compares-dems-impeachment-threats-to-the-american-revolution%2F Reaction: The revolutionary war was fought…

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