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New Report Breaks Down the Likelihood the GOP Keeps the House and Senate

Interesting numbers.



The November midterm elections are finally upon us, with one more day to go. Yes, that’s right folks, just survive the next 48 hours and the bombardment of political ads that are currently assaulting your eyeballs ruthlessly will come to an end.

In the meantime, many folks on the right are wondering what kind of odds the GOP is facing in regards to keeping the House and the Senate. Well, things are a bit of a mixed bag it seems.

Since the Kavanaugh confirmation circus, Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate have strengthened. For the last few weeks, Real Clear Politics’ average of the key polls has given Republicans 50 “safe” Senate seats and narrow leads in two of the six “tossup” races (last week the GOP had a slight edge in three). According to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Republicans now have a 6 in 7 chance (84.8%; up 2.1% since last week) of maintaining control of the Senate, giving the Democrats just a 1 in 7 chance (15.2%) of taking over.

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Silver projects Republicans to end up with 52 seats and Democrats with 48, a net gain of one seat for Republicans and one seat more than is needed for the 51-seat majority. Silver currently gives Republicans an 80% chance of gaining up to four seats or losing up to two, and just a 10% chance that they gain more than four or lose more than two.

With their Senate hopes slipping away, Democrats are increasingly looking to the House as their best chance at wresting at least one chamber of Congress out of the hands of the GOP. And, unlike with the Senate, the Democrats’ odds of doing so are looking quite good; in fact, they’re nearly mirror-images of the Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate.

Real Clear Politics’ poll averages currently show Democrats with 203 seats that are “safely” blue, including 14 that are “likely” to go their way and 16 that “lean” Democrat. Republicans currently have 196 “safe” seats (20 likely and 26 leaning). Last week, RCP gave Republicans 199 “safe” seats. If those numbers hold up, that means the Democrats only need 15 of the 36 tossup seats to attain the 218-majority in the House. Republicans, meanwhile, need to win 22. The one thing that could work in Republicans’ favor is that 31 of the 36 tossups are currently held by Republicans.

In numbers that closely resemble those for the Senate, but favoring the other party, FiveThirtyEight sets the odds dramatically in the Democrats’ favor. According to Silver’s analysis, the Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance (84.9%) of winning control of the House, while Republicans have only a 1 in 7 chance (15.1%). That’s about a 10-point improvement for Democrats over early October.

The most likely projected outcome is that Democrats will end up with 233 seats and Republicans with 202. Silver has given the Democratic Party a 10 percent chance of gaining more than 59 seats and a less than 10 percent chance of gaining fewer than 19 seats.

At the end of the day, it seems the projection is that Democrats will take the House while Republicans retain control of the Senate.

Source: Daily Wire


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