As we continue to march every forward in our political processes, the conversation in Washington DC and beyond will certainly begin turning toward the 2024 election.
In fact, we’ve already begun to follow several threads that will undoubtedly lead us to this contest, as a strange bit of progressive posturing seems to foretell the potential campaign of California Governor Gavin Newsom, who in turn seems to believe that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may be a contender on the Republican side of things. Newsom took aim at DeSantis in his home state of Florida via television ads, prompting the speculation.
But the assumption was a fairly bold one, as conventional thinking seems to suggest that Donald Trump would be the presumptive GOP nominee in 2024.
A new poll, however, appears to be challenging that idea.
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.Trending:
By focusing on political payback inside his party instead of tending to wounds opened by his alarming attempts to cling to power after his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump appears to have only deepened fault lines among Republicans during his yearlong revenge tour. A clear majority of primary voters under 35 years old, 64 percent, as well as 65 percent of those with at least a college degree — a leading indicator of political preferences inside the donor class — told pollsters they would vote against Mr. Trump in a presidential primary.
Mr. Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, appears to have contributed to the decline in his standing, including among a small but important segment of Republicans who could form the base of his opposition in a potential primary contest. While 75 percent of primary voters said Mr. Trump was “just exercising his right to contest the election,” nearly one in five said he “went so far that he threatened American democracy.”
But Trump still appears to have some advantage.
Overall, Mr. Trump maintains his primacy in the party: In a hypothetical matchup against five other potential Republican presidential rivals, 49 percent of primary voters said they would support him for a third nomination.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
Trump has reportedly been upset that Governor DeSantis hasn’t publicly denied rumors that he may run for office, but the former President hasn’t said anything publicly to that effect.