Pollsters Deliver Bad News to Democrats Excited About a 'Blue Wave' in the House
For the last year or so, Democrats have been attempting to mobilize their base by building up their confidence with the promise of a “Blue Wave” to sweep through Congress in response to the 2016 election of Donald Trump to the office of president.
Well, it looks like they’re going to have to break their supporters’ hearts, because pollsters have some very bad, bad news for their hopes of a Blue Wave.
In short, they’re going to be dashed to pieces.
According to RCP’s latest average of polls, Republicans now safely have 49 seats in the Senate, which means the Democrats need to win all 7 of the seats that are considered true “toss-ups” to gain the majority in November.
That’s certainly not welcome news to Democrats, who once hoped for a “blue wave” in both chambers. To make matters worse, pollsters have begun sounding the alarm over what once seemed to be the inevitable Democrat takeover of the House.
Among the most influential of the pollsters is Nate Silver, who warned Democrats that even with a generic ballot lead of +7, Democrats could end up failing to take the House.
“With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it’s very possible for polls to about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error,” Silver tweeted Sunday. “We have the D’s generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven’t changed much, we’ve crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.”
With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it's very possible for polls to about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
We have the D's generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven't changed much, we've crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
New York Times polling and election reporter Nate Cohn issued a similar warning to Dems Sunday. “The Democrats have put a long list of Republican-leaning districts into play. But it’s not clear whether they actually lead in a lot of them,” Cohn tweeted (h/t Twitchy). “That means there’s still a wide range of possible outcomes in the fight for control of the House.”
Uh oh.
Looks like that whole “Blue Wave” nonsense is not quite a done deal, despite how Democratic politicians have marketed the whole thing. Given the success the GOP is currently enjoying right now, it’s highly unlikely Americans are going to turn out in droves to replace them with Democrats.
We had eight years of Democratic policy that nearly destroyed both the economy and our fragile liberty. Folks will not be too eager to sabotage the rebuilding process.
Source: Daily Wire
