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Pollsters Deliver Bad News to Democrats Excited About a ‘Blue Wave’ in the House

Published

3 years ago

October 8, 2018

For the last year or so, Democrats have been attempting to mobilize their base by building up their confidence with the promise of a “Blue Wave” to sweep through Congress in response to the 2016 election of Donald Trump to the office of president.

Well, it looks like they’re going to have to break their supporters’ hearts, because pollsters have some very bad, bad news for their hopes of a Blue Wave.

In short, they’re going to be dashed to pieces.

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According to RCP’s latest average of polls, Republicans now safely have 49 seats in the Senate, which means the Democrats need to win all 7 of the seats that are considered true “toss-ups” to gain the majority in November.

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That’s certainly not welcome news to Democrats, who once hoped for a “blue wave” in both chambers. To make matters worse, pollsters have begun sounding the alarm over what once seemed to be the inevitable Democrat takeover of the House.

Among the most influential of the pollsters is Nate Silver, who warned Democrats that even with a generic ballot lead of +7, Democrats could end up failing to take the House.

“With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it’s very possible for polls to about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error,” Silver tweeted Sunday. “We have the D’s generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven’t changed much, we’ve crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.”

With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it's very possible for polls to about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018

We have the D's generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven't changed much, we've crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018

New York Times polling and election reporter Nate Cohn issued a similar warning to Dems Sunday. “The Democrats have put a long list of Republican-leaning districts into play. But it’s not clear whether they actually lead in a lot of them,” Cohn tweeted (h/t Twitchy). “That means there’s still a wide range of possible outcomes in the fight for control of the House.”

Uh oh.

Looks like that whole “Blue Wave” nonsense is not quite a done deal, despite how Democratic politicians have marketed the whole thing. Given the success the GOP is currently enjoying right now, it’s highly unlikely Americans are going to turn out in droves to replace them with Democrats.

We had eight years of Democratic policy that nearly destroyed both the economy and our fragile liberty. Folks will not be too eager to sabotage the rebuilding process.

Source: Daily Wire

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Infamous ‘Tic Tac’ UFO Spotted Clear Across The Atlantic

And just days ahead of the Pentagon’s big disclosure.

Published

4 hours ago

June 20, 2021

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The US government, in an unprecedented move, is set to release a treasure trove of previously-classified data to Congress and the public at the end of the month, all regarding one of the most mysterious phenomenon in the world: UFO’s. This disclosure comes after the military, somewhat surprisingly, began divulging the fact that they had been in pursuit of, and had video of, a number of incidents that seemed to defy both logic and physics. The most famous of the incidents is known colloquially as the “Nimitz Tic Tac” event, and is perhaps the most well-documented and credible UFO sightings of all time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXmQHwmNa_4 Now, just a few days before the Pentagon drops their much-anticipated report, an eerily similar incident is being reported thousands of miles away from the original sighting. The UFO resembling a “white Tic Tac” spotted in 2004 by Former U.S. Navy pilot Cmdr. David Fravor while on duty at the USS Nimitz is back – but this time it’s floating over England. Pictures of the notorious UFO were snapped by Lucy Jane Castle, from Hinckley in south-west Leicestershire, who managed to grab a snap of the unexplained object and posted it on a UFO hunter’s Facebook page, which was found by the Daily Star. “It was hovering for a while and within a blink of an eye it had gone,” Castle said. “Never seen anything like this before in that shape… Quickly took a picture while it was very still and within a blink of an eye it disappeared.” The photo wasn’t terribly convincing, however. https://twitter.com/SusanFensten/status/1406359808257765380?s=20 The Pentagon’s UFO report is expected to hit the headlines around June 29th.

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Swing State Getting Serious, Dumping 100K Off of Voter Rolls

This is the first such cleanup in YEARS.

Published

4 hours ago

June 20, 2021

Andrew West

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Over the course of the next several years, America is going to be taking a good hard look at how she handles elections, and things are likely to get somewhat ugly in the process. That’s because we’ve allowed the false dichotomy of the two-party system to stake claims to how we vote. On the left, a free-for-all. On the right, a far more serious application of election laws that could be commandeered by ne’er-do-wells looking to massage the electoral results. So, as we head to the polls in 2022 and 2024, we will do so under the auspices of angst, almost undoubtedly, after having seen a great deal of fussing and fudging of the system itself. In Georgia, a massive cleanup of the voter rolls are now underway, for example. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger intends to remove 101,789 “obsolete and outdated” voter files from the state’s voter registration rolls, his office announced. “Making sure Georgia’s voter rolls are up to date is key to ensuring the integrity of our elections,” Raffensperger said in a statement. “That is why I fought and beat Stacey Abrams in court in 2019 to remove nearly 300,000 obsolete voter files before the November election, and will do so again this year. Bottom line, there is no legitimate reason to keep ineligible voters on the rolls.” The more than 100,000 voter files set to be removed include 67,286 voter files linked to a National Change of Address form submitted to the U.S. Postal Service; 34,227 voter files that had election mail returned to sender; and nearly 300 that had no contact with elections official for two general elections. This is the first serious sanitation attempt since 2019, and has already seen over 18,000 dead Georgians removed from the rolls.